Arbitrage overview

ProbSights pairs Kalshi and Polymarket BTC markets with a canonical fingerprint matcher, then exposes fee-adjusted arbitrage and same-side price spreads.

Endpoint	Use for
Cross-venue arbitrage	Risk-adjusted YES/NO cross buys where net edge is positive after fees.
Price spreads	Where venues disagree on the same outcome side (not risk-free arb).

How pairs are built

Pairs are rebuilt on a short refresh cycle using exact outcome fingerprints (not fuzzy title matching):

Matcher	`match_method`	What it matches
BTC Up/Down interval	`btc_interval`	Same interval + window slot
BTC strike / bracket	`bracket_strike`	Exact strike cents + settlement day + horizon

Each pair includes fingerprint, confidence (clock alignment), and settlement_fidelity (identical or window_skew).

Unified historical orderbook Cross-venue arbitrage

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Arbitrage

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How pairs are built

​How pairs are built

How pairs are built