Arbitrage overview

ProbSights pairs Kalshi and Polymarket BTC markets with a canonical fingerprint matcher, then exposes fee-adjusted arbitrage and same-side price spreads.

Endpoint	Use for
Arbitrage history	Paged feed of recorded opportunities, newest first. This is what the Dashboard reads.
Price spreads	Where venues disagree on the same outcome side (not risk-free arb).

How pairs are built

Pairs are rebuilt on a short refresh cycle using exact outcome fingerprints (not fuzzy title matching):

Matcher	`match_method`	What it matches
BTC Up/Down interval	`btc_interval`	Same interval + window slot
BTC strike / bracket	`bracket_strike`	Exact strike cents + settlement day + horizon

Each pair includes fingerprint, confidence (clock alignment), and settlement_fidelity (identical or window_skew).

Getting started

Search

Historical

Arbitrage

Whales

Webhooks

How pairs are built